Will a hung Parliament send the Government to the gallows?

1:53 PM, 19/2/2010 .. 0 comments .. Link

One of the jokers in the pack in the upcoming State election is the role that could be played by Independents in determining the identity of the Government. If the Rann Government were to lose 5 seats (which is perfectly feasible), Independents such as Bob Such, Karlene Maywald (National, I know), Kris Hanna and Geoff Brock will come into play (assuming they all hold their seats). This is of course what happened in 2001. Much has changed, however, and I am betting on a different outcome if history repeats. Before discussing the role that Independents could play in determining the Government, we should examine their chances of re-election. We will start with Karlene Maywald, who is the only “Independent” to be a Government Minister. Not only is she a Minister, but she is the Minister for Water, which is the number one issue facing her electorate. She can try to sell the “I am working for you” message all she wants, the drought ravaged electorate ain’t gonna buy it. Conservative voters will see her as a sell out. The Rann Government’s main water policy, a desalination plant, will be little comfort to voters kicking around in a dust bowl in regional SA. I personally think Karlene will lose to the Liberal party. If she does hang on, and is faced with a hung parliament scenario, I don’t necessarily think that her loyalty to the Rann Government is guaranteed. Geoff Brock is responsible for hammering the first nail in Martin Hamilton-Smith’s coffin. His surprise victory in Frome was a devastating blow to the Liberal party, but I don’t think all hope is lost. Country Independents generally build outback empires, and are virtually impossible to unseat. Mr Brock has only had 18 months to dig his moat and stock his garrison. Coupled with resurgent Liberal party popularity, I think that Frome will go down to the wire. If Brock does hold on, he has a tough decision to make. Support the Liberal Government and therefore become a proxy Liberal, and ensure that he holds his seat in the long term. Or support the ALP, whom he is more ideologically close to, and potentially lose his seat in the 2014 post-Rann holocaust election. One only needs to look at the manner in which ALP members voted on WorkCover legislation to see what wins out when self-interest and ideology collide. Speaking of WorkCover, we move on to Kris Hanna, who was outspoken in his opposition to changes to that legislation. Although I live in an electorate adjacent to Mitchell, I haven’t seen any of his election material. If I were him, though, I would be pushing a “More Labor than Labor” campaign slogan, as Mitchell is traditionally a strong Labor seat and the WorkCover debate alienated many traditional supporters. Hanna would be wise to use this as his central campaign strategy perhaps combined with a few strategic photo shoots with Nick Xenophon. Hanna’s main opposition is Alan Sibbons, another beneficiary of the AMWU’s deal with the Labor Right. What is unfortunate for the AMWU (who ironically enough share Kris Hanna’s views on WorkCover), is that this looks like another example of ‘close, but no cigar’ as it is unlikely that he will win the seat. Hanna, who has ratted twice before, on the ALP then the Greens, should hold, and would relish any opportunity to sink the dagger into his old Labor enemies. Since it seems that Isobel Redmond has the potential to be more left wing on some issues than Rann Government, such as law and order, I would not be surprised to see Hanna forming some sort of coalition with the opposition to form Government. The final Independent to discuss is Bob Such. Good old Suchy - he is my local member, and a tremendously popular one at that. As Amanda Rishworth’s campaign manager in 2006, I witnessed first hand how much time and effort went into trying to unseat Bob. We door knocked on 40 degree days, letterboxed, direct mailed etc. Although Amanda received the biggest two party preferred swing in the State, Suchy still won comfortably. The only way that the ALP could win this seat is to push Such into third spot, and then receive the majority of his preferences. Fisher, however, is notionally a Liberal party seat. Indeed, Bob Such was a former Liberal party Minister, before being stabbed in the back by the party. An important factor in the outcome of any Independent coalition is whether the wounds of this back stabbing have healed. I may be wrong, but I don’t think Isobel Redmond had anything to do with Suchy’s disenchantment with the Liberal party - I think he can be talked into supporting a Redmond Government. If we do get into a situation where there is a hung Parliament, I would put my money
on the Liberal party for several reasons. Firstly, there are the backgrounds of the Independents likely to form any coalition, as discussed it is not in the interests of any of them to support the Labor Party. Secondly, for a hung Parliament situation to arise, there would need to be a relatively large swing against the Government. Liberal party negotiators would paint this as a sign of voter disenchantment, and a mandate for a change in Government. Independents are always wary of making decisions that could jeopardise their seats. If there was a swing against the Government, there would be colossal voter backlash at the next election against all who were responsible for returning them to power. The Rann Government will carry with it 8 years of baggage, the sneering cat calls as Kris Hanna would rise to his feet on Private Members’ Business etc. Suchy might think his raft of Private Members Bills will get better attention under a new Government. Independents could also be wary of making any deals with Rann, as they may not be sure if he will serve an entire term as Premier. Lastly, there is no Randall Ashbourne to broker a deal. Rann and team certainly pulled a rabbit out of the hat in 2002, but the magic is all but gone now, and we are all wise to the sleights of hand behind the illusion.