Playing the man, I mean playing the woman, not the ball

12:14 PM, 11/2/2010 .. 0 comments .. Link

There have been interesting developments in the South Australian 2010 Election campaign. While the 2006 ALP slogan was “Rann gets results”, a positive message spruiking the achievements of the Government over the previous 4 years, it appears that the 2010 slogan will be “Redmond won’t get results.” This is a definite change in tactics, and I question the effectiveness.



I believe one of the major reasons behind the record breaking 2006 State Election for the ALP was the positive message sold to the public, and the relative cleanliness of the campaign. The Opposition Leader was “Mr Nice Guy” Rob Kerin who, being perceptibly non-threatening, caused left spin doctors to conclude that any attack on the poor bugger would be counter-productive. In 2010, the Government obviously feels quite differently.



Two of the three main Rann attack dogs have been let off their leashes, having been given the scent of one of Isobel Redmond’s unfashionable dresses. Rann and Foley have both come out attacking the readiness of the Opposition team to govern, with Foley even going so far as to call Isobel “arrogant”. If the Government truly feels that way about her, surely they should have given this line of attack to someone else in the Cabinet room rather than deeming the Treasurer the proverbial pot addressing the kettle? I assert that this strategy of attacking the Opposition Leader personally, instead of the Opposition as a whole, is fatally flawed.



The Rann Government, it appears, believes it was the Opposition that cast the first stone (as do I, by the way) and that the Liberal party is behind the Michelle Chantelois media machine, amongst other dirty tricks. It is for this reason that the Government feels justified in playing the man, not the ball. Isobel Redmond has been very careful, however, to distance herself from the Chantelois scandal, and has not sought publicly to gain any mileage out of it. Unless the Government can prove that the Liberal party is behind the dirt machine, and that Isobel personally approved of such tactics, the public will form the opinion that the Government initiated the dirty election campaign. This will give the media free reign to examine the skeletons in both parties’ closets, which I do not think is a game the Rann Government should be playing.



There have always been two schools of thought on the negative election strategy. There are those who think that the public are turned off by negative campaigning, and that only positive messages should be sold. On the other hand, there are those who believe that negative campaigns are an essential part of politics. I am of the opinion that it all depends on the resonance of the negative message; it is ok to have negative advertisements as long as they reinforce beliefs that the public already has. One need only look at the 2004 Federal Election campaign for evidence of this – the Liberal party’s “Labor can’t be trusted with interest rates” was incredibly effective, and heightened further when combined with the loose cannon leadership of Mark Latham. The same campaign did not work against a “safe pair of hands” like Kevin Rudd.



The problem with attacking Isobel Redmond’s character is that the public doesn’t really have any strongly formed opinions of her yet. The Government should, by all means, pursue the line of “she is an unknown quantity”, but should refrain from calling her arrogant especially when that is a trait they themselves have been accused of having. Further to this, they should not be seen to send out their two biggest bullies to push around a female candidate especially when there is already public perception of their chauvinism. I believe that Isobel’s success has taken the Government by surprise, and that the personal campaign against her is a slap-dash, cobbled together strategy with limited chances of success.



A more appropriate strategy for the Government would be to attack the policies, costings and experience of the Opposition. Indeed, there are traces of these arguments within the comments of Foley and Conlon. The problem is, the media will always run with the juicy anti-Redmond sentiment first - it is more appealing to the readership. Many within the ALP believe that the media is biased towards the Opposition, yet seem to go out of their way to provide it with ammunition.



Election campaigns require almost military-style discipline. It has been said that Kevin Rudd, during the Kevin 07 campaign, was as disciplined as a Purple Hearted Marine. Discipline, however, has always been a problem for Foley and Conlon, especially when they sense the opportunity to poke their forked tongues into a gaping Liberal wound. If the campaign continues along the current track, and evidence of Liberal involvement in dirty tricks remains undiscovered, the results Rann will get in 2010 will be vastly different to those celebrated four years previously.