Crystal Balling

9:15 PM, 19/3/2010 .. 0 comments .. Link

Ok so it is election
eve, a night that always has filled with me with dread and fear. In the past, it has been a fear that the public would return the Liberals to power. This time, I don’t really care which side wins, as long as the election results reflect the growing public discontent with the styles of political leadership in this State. With an ALP victory likely tomorrow, I will look at what this means for the next four years.



It is looking increasingly likely that the ALP will be returned to power. Party sources are confident of holding onto Bright and Newland, and regaining the seat of Mitchell. This is backed up by Advertiser polls. In my view, the seats of Hartley, Mawson, Light, Norwood, Morialta are gone. This means that the Liberal party would need to win some real upsets, such as the seat of Adelaide to win Government. I will now examine some of these seats.



Mitchell is a seat that the ALP regrets losing last time. It looks to be within the grasps of the party this time, oddly due to the resurgence in popularity of the Liberal party. It is amusing to me that Liberal voters are so unaware of the impact of their votes. Maybe the article in today’s tiser may shift some anti-Rann voters to Kris Hanna. If the polling figures are reflected in tomorrows polls, however, Alan Sibbons will be elected. Mr Sibbons, from what I have seen, does not appear to be Ministerial material, but I am sure he will make a dedicated local member. The AMWU will at last get something out of their alliance with the Right. Mitchell, however, should correctly be viewed as a safe ALP seat. As such, the caliber of candidate pre-selected should be one capable of being a front bencher. For example, Paul Holloway was once a member for Mitchell. Alan Sibbons will do nothing to rejuvenate the Rann front bench in my opinion.



Tom Kenyon and Chloe Fox will be viewed as the heroes of the ALP if they manage to hold onto their seats tomorrow night. Chloe Fox, in particular, will likely be given a Ministry in a post 2010 election cabinet reshuffle, probably at the expense of Minister Michael Wright, who is also in the right. She will probably be given some good news portfolios, such as Sport and Recreation (imagine the photo ops with Kate Ellis) and Minister for Youth. Kenyon probably won’t gain anything in a Rann Ministry, but maybe a Foley Ministry some time in 2011 or 2012. If Grace Portolesi holds her seat in Hartley, she will probably gain a Ministry at the expense of Gail Gago.



If Mike Rann does retain his job as Premier this weekend, his approach to the reshuffle will be incredibly interesting. It is quite clear that the unpopularity of the Government has been caused in large part due to Rann being on the nose. Senior Government members would realize this, and in my opinion they will be looking for his head within the first year and a half of the new term. This will especially be the case if Rann is unable to regain momentum following the victory. Key members of the Right, particularly Tom Koutsantonis, would have much to gain from a Foley leadership. It would be easy to imagine Kouts wanting the Treasury portfolio. All of this is speculation at this stage of course, but the question of leadership is undeniably going to be an issue. How can Rann overcome this?

Rann is a political survivor. He looks like he is going to cling to power despite a sex scandal, which is quite an achievement. He would definitely be aware of the sharks circling his boat. He will try to cut this off at the pass with some crafty maneuver. If anything, he may try to place booby traps around his leadership, so that when he is knifed, he triggers some cluster bombs. My personal view is he will try to promote those that have displayed the most public loyalty, such as members of the left like Pat Conlon and Jay Weatherill. He could even try to anoint Weatherill as his successor, which will aggravate the right (but they are already probably plotting his demise). Rann is smarter than I am at such plots, so we will wait and see. He won’t go down easily.



Ok so we have seen that the ALP will probably win tomorrow, with a one or two seat majority. Although this is the conventional wisdom, I wouldn’t completely rule out some major upsets. Look at the collapse of the Labor vote in the seat of Mitchell. The ALP vote dropped 8 %, while the Liberal vote raised 6%. On the face of this, it is a 14% swing, although the preferential system means that in reality, it would be much lower. Having said that, 8% of ALP voters have felt they can no longer support the party. The seat of Adelaide sits on a 10% margin. The ALP hasn’t put “marginal seat” focus into Adelaide, and given that J-Lo may be on the nose due to portfolio issues, means that an upset could be possible. There are no doubts there are going to be MAJOR swings in safe ALP seats, but this will ultimately mean diddly squat in the end. It will just mean that Mick Atkinson will spend another four years pestering his electorate on his bicycle, asking why they turned on him.



Well folks, looks like another four years of a “Labor” Government. I will write a blog some time on Monday analyzing the results. At least another four years of ALP, means four more years of angry blogs.