Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic
1:52 PM, 25/3/2010 .. 0 comments .. Link

Yesterday the Liberal party finally conceded defeat, paving the way for the first cabinet reshuffle of the new Government’s term. The size of the margin is yet to be decided. I would prefer for Chloe Fox to hold on in her epic struggle for Bright, but a one seat majority will make the next four years that much more interesting. What are the implications of this reshuffle? With Jay Weatherill lurking in the shadows while Rann swings lamely from a poll like a gruesome piñata, it is highly unlikely that this will be the last of the Government’s term.

Anyone that has read my previous posts would realise that I would have greeted the news of John Rau’s elevation to the AG position warmly. The portfolio of AG plays an important role in determining the overall conservatism of the Government. Mr Rau, as a distinguished lawyer, should display a little more respect to established legal principles than his predecessor. His elevation did, however, come as somewhat of a surprise considering his relatively unpopular status within the Right faction. I suspect that the power brokers were aware that with the resignation of Mr Atkinson, Rau was the only remaining member of the right with the qualifications for the job. A failure to elevate Rau could have resulted in the handing of the portfolio to one of the lawyers in the left, such as Pat Conlon or Jay Weatherill (although his challenge made that unlikely). It is too early to get a gauge on staff movements within the Ministerial offices, but it will be interesting to see whether John Rau takes Mr Atkinson’s entire staff holus bolus. There will obviously be some leakage due to the Veterans Affairs and Multicultural Affairs split (maybe they didn’t want a Sykes and Rau in the same Ministerial office given the Charles Sturt Local Council connection). With the eccentricity of Atkinson, it is safe to say that the two offices will operate in starkly different manners.

As expected, Jack Snelling was also promoted to the Ministry. Amusingly, he has taken on the Road Safety portfolio. I can guarantee that whatever baby wagon Jack drives would be incapable of hooning around the streets of Adelaide clocking up speeding fines. His elevation has not been as meteoric as Rau’s, gaining more mid level portfolios, such as Further Education and Training. These portfolios were given to Caica and O’Brien immediately upon their elevation to cabinet. I predict that Jack will be a safe pair of hands that will not cause any Ministerial scandals, but at the same time, his portfolio areas give him little opportunity to make a massive public impact in the short term.

The elevation of Grace Portolesi to the Ministry is an interesting development. During the previous term and during the election campaign, Grace has shown her proclivity to produce the occasional media clanger. She has also exhibited a willingness to engage in unilateral policy announcements/recommendations, such as when she was a spokeswoman on a report into paid maternity leave. In that instance, she made a public announcement suggesting that the State Government pay for maternity leave, only to receive a swift wrap on the knuckles by Treasury I suspect. It is too early to tell whether these mistakes are a result of inexperience. Time will tell.

Another interesting development was the shifting of Paul Caica out of IR into the water portfolio. Caica appears to be the new Michael Wright, as he appears to be given the “shit sandwich” portfolios that nobody would want to touch. A possible reason is both these Ministers are considered “nice guys” as far as public demeanour, so they probably get away with more than others would. Caica would probably be thankful to get away from IR, where his previous history as a union official and factional orientation would have caused him no end of grief. His only previous experience with water was being on the end of a fire hose. If he manages to keep his garden taps off, he should fare quite well. The shifting of the IR portfolio from the left to the right is incredibly interesting. If firstly means that IR adviser former ASU Secretary Andy Dennard may need to go back to union, cap in hand or start learning about salinity. I suspect something more sinister, however. I wouldn’t be surprised if the left was given IR to appease the union fanatics post WorkCover in the lead up to the election. Now that another four years is secure, the portfolio has swung back to an economically conservative and capable Minister in Paul Holloway. Maybe it was also a whack to the left arising out of Weatherill’s challenge?

Finally, the stagnancy of Pat Conlon is curious. He appears to be stuck with Transport for all eternity. Arguably, he can only go higher with AG or Treasurer, and those are off limits. Poor Fix it Pat will be a fixture for another four years. Michael Wright also retained his portfolios, aided by the loss of Maywald and Lomax, and the retirement of Atkinson. He has more lives than a cat with an immunity bracelet, but will be the first right minister to go if (or when) Foley ascends to the leadership. I get the feeling that before the year is out, I will be discussing at least one more Government reshuffle.