Hail Mary

5:58 AM, 20/2/2010 .. 0 comments .. Link
Hello all. Sorry I have been a little quiet over the last week. I have been having a wonderful holiday in Sydney, and so the SA Election campaign hasn't been top priority. I have been taking a keen interest in the developments of the week, however. Today marks the start of the "official" election campaign. The Government will enter into this period buoyed by the victories of the previous week, and the knowledge that they possess a sack full of cash- garnered from four years if corporate fundraisers- to splurge on carefully crafted Government adverts. In this post, I will discuss the politics behind the Government's main victory of the week, the Southern Expressway expansion, and the over arching theme of the advantages of incumbency. On Wednesday last week, the Rann Government announced the doubling of the Southern Expressway, a road that has been a national laughing stock ever since it was built. The largesse of this announcement surprised me for various reasons. Firstly, I can clearly recall attending ALP functions over the past 10 years at which the idea of doubling the expressway was always ruled out categorically on the grounds that it would be too expensive. What has changed? The Premier this week admitted himself that the extension of the road would be even more expensive now than it was in years previous. What about the economic climate? Has that improved? Certainly not. It seems like only yesterday that Kevin Foley was prophesising the end of the financial world as we know it. I remember listening to KFol speak through the tinny speakers of Parliament House, and thinking, gee there won't be any buckets of cash to spend in the 2010 election campaign. Given these facts, how can the announcement be justified? I will admit from the outset that I haven't examined the costings behind the Southern Expressway project. Despite this lack of knowledge, it is my belief that the announcement has all the hallmarks of a Hail Mary play. The American Super Bowl is only a few weeks past, but I will explain the origins of this term anyway. A Hail Mary is a very risky play utilized by gridiron teams in "last ditch" circumstances, where all seems lost. It is the "nothing to lose", despairing attempt at victory. The Government, probably armed with internal polling data, realises that Mawson and Bright are vital seats to hold onto, and Mitchell must be won. They couldn't afford to be trumped by a Liberal Southern Expressway announcement. This time the hail mary play seems to have resulted in a touch down. The fragility of the Liberal party was exposed this week in the fall out of the Southern Expressway debacle. There are now serious questions to ask about whether their readiness to govern. One of my pet peeves arising out of the whole debacle, however, is the Government's arrogance regarding their ability to get costings and develop policy through Government departments. It is an advantage of incumbency, and a terrible flaw in our democratic system. It doesn't prove anything apart from a superiority of resources, The access to Government Departments, combined with the fundraising advantages of incumbency, results in an uneven playing field. I believe that there should be an independent Government policy and costing agency, which both major parties can access 1 year out from a general election. This is only a pipe dream, however. For now we have to live with what we have got. So what can we expect from the coming week? I think that we will witness an elaborate, targeted and systematic campaign from the Labor party, backed by intimidating financial resources. My major problem with the ALP is that it has abandoned much of what it once believed in, in exchange for winning elections. The argument is, you can't change much in opposition. Irrespective of the merits of this argument, the ALP now is VERY good at winning elections. The Liberal party is a pauper in South Australia, and will probably be badly beaten in the election campaign, in a technical sense. No amount of advertising will help, however, if the faces and voices in the adverts no longer appeal to the voters. It is my view, based on the past weeks events, that the Government, aided by its resources and campaign team, will scrape back into Government, with the loss of 3-4 seats, despite considerable public disenchantment in its performance. The problem with Australian politics is that there are really only two options, ALP or Liberal. This causes a dilemma when neither side seems worthy of governing. Rann has admitted in the media, however, that this campaign is about "finishing" the job. He of course will not be around come 2014. Hopefully the Liberals will have there act together by then, so they can take advantage of the shambolic Government which is destined to emerge over the next four years. Well. i am off to enjoy my birthday, doped to the eyeballs on cold and flu medication. As Big John McCarthy would say, Let's Get it On!