Who can ya trust?

10:18 AM, 5/2/2010 .. 0 comments .. Link

Trust is probably the most important factor in politics, even outstripping competence and stability/unity. For example, one need only look at the Tom Koutsantonis “speeding fine” incident. In the cold light of day, speeding is hardly a cardinal sin, especially given our State’s confusing and positively wacky road laws. I got my first fine the other day- 58 in a 50 zone. I was sure it was 60. I have been accused of driving like a grand pa, but that is beside the point. Kouts could easily have explained away his extensive record by citing his history as a taxi driver. Taxi drivers drive for a living, so they are obviously on the road more than people who catch the bus to their city desk jobs. None of his speeding offences would be considered “hoon driving”, no Tokyo Drift competitions or playing chicken Grease style. At the end of the day, whilst the record was unfortunate, in itself it is hardly a hanging offence. Then why the scandal? Why the public outrage?

Mr Koutsantonis, when becoming a Minister, unleashed years of pent of frustration, in an absolutely positive way. He was perhaps the most active, engaging and outspoken Minister in the Government team, particularly within the Road Safety portfolio. (Maybe he was performing too well for the liking of some people, but that is neither here nor there). His tough hoon rhetoric may have enraged the Fresh FM audience and my brother, but at least he was on the front foot. That however, would ultimately be his downfall.

Mr Koutsantonis was so passionate, so ardent in his condemnation of hoon driving and hoon culture. The public believed his passion. They believed that he wanted to crush all these Japanese imported Pimped Rides. They had no reason to doubt it either. Until the speeding fines story broke. (again I have said that whilst the speeding fine record was extensive, it could not be classified in the same category as street dragging etc). The public outrage was, at its root, caused by the feeling that it had been duped. While the public is wary of politicians, and will jokingly say “they are all liars”, I believe that deep down we all want to believe that what they preach to us is coming from a genuine place. Who knows, Tom could have been so ardent with his condemnation of hoons because he had the zealousness of a convert (may not be his exact words). Irregardless of the true motivations, the public now had reason to doubt any carefully worded press release or impassioned press conference. While the speeding fines will disappear from the collective public memory, the perceived betrayal of public trust will linger for at least a decade. Now why am I talking about trust? Well today’s Tiser opinion poll seems to blame the current plummet in Rann Government popularity to that very issue.

I dealt extensively with the Rann trust issue in yesterday’s blog. I do not intend to re-examine that issue. What I would prefer to discuss is the overall chances of the re-election of the Rann Government, in light of this new opinion poll. Of course, Tiser polls are hardly gospel. 539 people does not constitute a definitive indication of the future of the Government. I argue, however, that a State wide poll, whilst helpful, is not the best way of determining the hopes of the Government in the upcoming ballot.

A Federal Government will not lose an election unless there is a prevailing “It’s time” mood sweeping the countryside. The Winston Churchill strategy of “fighting them in the trenches blah blah blah” won’t work. Individual candidates and local issues may play roles in individual cases, but unless the PM is on the nose, generally the Government stays. My philosophy when it came to the upcoming election was always that seats could be lost, even without an “It’s time” mood, because of the increased relevance of local issues in State polls. There is a swag of local issues burning, and I will discuss these shortly. Given the latest poll, indicating a change in the way the overall political wind is blowing, these local issues will take on greater relevance.

Water has been a crucial issue in South Australia. It is perhaps unfair to blame a single Government for 100 years of public policy failure. That is the way politics works though. Chloe Fox has unfortunately been lumped with the Rann Government’s solution, the desalination plant, smack bang in the middle of her electorate. Having door knocked with Chloe, I can personally say she is one of the more impressive grass roots campaigners within the Government. A big stinking water factory marring your coast line does not help when you knock on a door in Christies Downs. It is dangerous enough down there as it is.

Another local issue burning is the Adelaide Establishment, blue blood, hoity toity issues such as the RAH and Glenside. While I may be disillusioned with the Labor Party, that does not mean I am going to be climbing upon this particular band wagon. Band wagon might be inappropriate. It is perhaps a luxury Rolls Royce sedan. Any seat which houses hyphenated names, such as Norwood, Adelaide, Morialta, Newland, is going to be impacted by these issues. One may argue that these toffs never vote Labor anyway. My argument is that given the swings to the Government in the last election, at least some of them must have.

Newland is one of the seats that goes to Labor whenever the moon turns a shade of blue. Tom Kenyon himself would readily admit that. Tom is up against Trish Draper, one of John Howard’s girls. Whilst the ALP has a dirt file on Trish bigger than J Edgar Hoover’s, she is a formidable opponent. The Liberals have their own ace up their sleave. Everyone knows it, and I personally feel no need to say anything about it, apart from saying it has something to do with geography.

When it comes to Hartley, I must profess that my only knowledge of the Italian community derives from watching the entire Sopranos series in 3 months following my resignation from Government. Maybe Tony Soprano’s mentality seeped into my fragile mind somehow. I do know that the Italian community is highly influential in Hartley. I don’t know how the Portolesi family fares against the Scalzi family. No Portolesi’s have ever appeared on Big Brother. Irregardless, this Mediterranean peculiarity will have some bearing on the outcome. I cannot say in which direction.

One of the seats the ALP would desperately desire to win back is Mitchell. I could reveal every dirty ALP secret I know and I would still be hated with less ferocity than Kris Hanna. I don’t think any independent will lose in this election though, particularly if X marks their spot. Mitchell is a Labor seat though, and it should have been won last time. Whether the ALP can win it back during an election that it is on the nose is another matter.

For all the reasons above, I think that March 20 2010 will be compulsive viewing for any political junkie. I think the ending will be more thrilling than any Midsummer Murders mystery that would normally air on the ABC. My mum loves em. Local issues are going to play a major role. One is for certain. The Government does not need any more own goals from Government Ministers or public appearances by doe eyed blondes.