11:02 AM, 9/3/2010 .. 0 comments .. Link

The Murdoch press has sent an icy chill through the corridors of power in South Australia today, with the publishing of their revered News Poll. While there have been various other polls of ill repute, such as the Advertiser polls, which have suggested that Mike Rann and his Government are on the nose, this is the first definitive public poll to place the Liberal Opposition within grasp of clinching Government. There are some pundits, particularly the dishevelled and husky Bob Ellis (I bet his appearance wasn’t approved by Mike’s media unit), who question the accuracy of the poll. One of the main reasons for this scepticism is the fact that the poll was taken over a three month period, including the holiday month of January. I think the numbers require much more detailed analysis than that given by the gruff Ellis, probably only made hurriedly upon awaking from a red wine hangover.

One of the undeniable truths to be lifted from the polling figures is that the Rann Government has been on a consistently downward slide towards oblivion, commencing mid last year. It was commenced this descent down the rabbit hole before that time, but they clutched to the branch clumsily offered by the inept MHS. I assert that when a Government is in free fall, as appears to be the case now, the pace at which they descend towards the splat on the pavement increases as the election nears, spurred on by desperation and associated blunders. I will speak more about these blunders at a later date. Why then, is it assumed that the Liberal lead is overstated because of the lengthy polling period (January to March) of the News Poll. I would argue, based upon the prevailing mood that is thick in the air, that if anything the popularity of the Government is lower now than in January. There is much cause to worry about within the lofty towers of Rann HQ.

Another concern for the Government is that, based upon the News Poll figures, a large percentage of voters have already decided on which party they will be casting their vote for. Such early decisiveness does not bode well for the ALP in my opinion. It is analogous to the mood in the 2007 Federal election campaign. Over the past decade I have stood post on many a polling booth, but never before had I seen such a mood as in 2007. The masses were lined up, eager to vote, up to half an hour prior to the commencement of voting. They were sick of the Government, and they couldn’t wait to boot them out. The final few hours of polling had the inevitable stragglers, but overall the execution of the Howard Government was swift and surgically precise. The resoluteness of voters, as displayed in the News Poll figures, is more likely the result of a “it’s time” vibe than a “Izzy sucks” vibe.

So as we can see, the Rann Government is definitely crouched down in a bunker, receiving heavy fire from the opposition outposts over yonder. It has been said that in these situations, soldiers rediscover their faith in a higher power. For the SA ALP, their higher power over the last decade has always been Mike Rann, campaigner extraordinaire. Highlighted in the figures, though, is that Mike Rann is one of the dominant causes for the mammoth fall in Government popularity. In the past Mike was the shining light which blinded the populace of the outright unpalatable nature of much of the Government front bench. Now that the light has dimmed, Atkinson, Foley and Conlon have been revealed in all their glory, like the opening of the curtain at a freak show. Today’s News Poll is merely a statistical reflection of the voting public’s collective gasp of despair and disgust.



One of the other possible arguments against the accuracy of the News Poll is the traditional argument that incumbent Government’s improve their status during the election campaign. This may tradition, but I would assert that it has not been the case in the current circumstance. As an intimate observer of the ALP over the past ten to fifteen years, I have been shocked by the inability of the Government to sell its message to the public. Every day I read the tweets of the Premier touting the daily policy innovation, and every evening I view the news broadcasts, which paint an entirely different image of the day’s proceedings. Having not been close to the campaign this time, I can’t comment on the slickness or organisation of party HQ. Given the funding and the resources of the ALP, however, I have no reason to doubt that the campaign is just as strong at the source. The campaign, like a ripple, seems to be dying out the further and further one gets from the pebble, whilst every squeak Isobel makes resonates throughout the entire community like a roar. This has not been a strong campaign, and so the social experiment of going to a poll with a leader embattled with a sex scandal appears destined for failure.

Previously in this post, I referred to how a Government in free fall tends to result in blunders caused out of desperation. I would argue that this is particularly the case with this Government. I remember sharing a beer at Distill on Rundle Street with several high level powerbrokers the evening of a negative opinion poll during the ascent of MHS. I remember calls for Mike Rann’s head, despairing remarks about the mortgage and so on. One can only wonder what discussions are going on in the trendy Adelaide watering holes this evening. In the panic of the campaign, several blunders have been made, mainly by the media team in an attempt to control events in the same way they had over the past eight years. Examples are the Matthew Abraham debate scandal, the Tom Koutsantonis Road Safety policy launch debacle, the Grace Portolesi sparked blanket ban on backbencher radio debates. The irony of the matter is, the more the media team tries to control public opinion, the more that public opinion turns against the Government. You can’t teach an old dog new tricks, especially when it has gotten fat and lazy on treats for eight years.

The one last ditch hope that the Government would be clinging onto is that the swing against the Government won’t be uniformly translated across the marginal seats. The Newland Tiser poll would be particularly heartening. Their major concern, however, would be the fact the unpopularity of Mike Rann, which would be a factor in EVERY seat. As the campaign rolls on, and panic begins to take hold, I can only see things getting worse for the Government. On election night, I am going to take particular notice of the results in safe ALP seats such as Croydon and West Torrens, where the local members have endured scandals over the past years. In a campaign like this one, I think we will be dealt a fair share of surprises, and it may take a few weeks to piece together our Government for the next four years.