Strange Bedfellows

When Joe Public visits their nearest Borders to purchase the latest celebrity chef cook book and a mochachino, they will be greeted by shelf upon shelf of political commentary spawned from the 2010 election result. The outpouring of commentary is unprecedented, especially given that this year’s poll was universally considered to be banal and bland. Much of the commentary emerging from the press gallery can be explained by the emergence of the Greens, the knifing of Rudd and the “new paradigm”. Of more interest is the entering into the fray by active political operatives, such as Paul Howes.

The 2010 Australian election will be viewed as historically significant for a number of reasons; hung parliament, ALP leadership, rise of the Greens. The rise of the Greens, however, has been at the expense of the ALP, and this fact could be the most significant trend to emerge from the poll. The period between now and the next election (whenever that may be) should be viewed as a fight for the future of the “left wing vote”. The message sent to the ALP by those in the trendy inner city electorates is one that has been heard loud and clearly by the wiser heads within the party. They realise that they must act during this window of opportunity before the left vote is lost forever. The challenge for people like Howes, parasites reliant upon the health of their host to survive, is convincing the lumbering beast that they are headed towards the cliff.

The recent Road to Damascus conversion of Howes and Arbib to the cause of gay marriage has been a curious occurrence. Cynics would suggest that this change of heart was not dictated by some fundamental change of beliefs. To succeed in the modern ALP, factional warriors such as Arbib and Howe have learnt that survival is much more important than strength of belief. They realise that if they continue to be outflanked by the Greens on important social issues such as gay marriage, those that switched allegiances for the first time in 2010 may be lost forever in 2014. The structure of the ALP, however, is not equipped to react to these realities.

The Right faction of the ALP, which Arbib and Howes are a part, may be devoid of beliefs in many policy areas, but gay marriage is certainly not one of them. Within the power broking positions of the Right there exist two distinct classes of people; win-at-all costs careerists and devout Catholics. The Catholics have lost the abortion battle, and they will be damned if they will roll over on gay marriage. The gay marriage issue is a perfect example of the flaws of ALP’s structure in reflecting the prevailing sentiment of their traditional voters. By obtaining control of a few unrepresentative unions, a few Catholics can veto policy initiatives that have overwhelming public support. I challenge the Shop Assistant’s union to poll their employees on the question of gay marriage.

Any debate about the future direction of the ALP will be futile unless it addresses the fundamental failing of the party structure. Even if Arbib and Howe do achieve a change to party policy on gay marriage (highly unlikely, and will only occur over lengthy and bloody battle) the party will continue to be behind public sentiment until there is reform which ensures that decisions are in the hands of a representative majority, not an unrepresentative few. By vesting ultimate power in the hands of the trade union movement, a movement with limited relevance to modern society controlled by careerists with no connection to the community, the ALP will continue its descent into mediocrity.