Can’t see the forest for the protestors

Governments have much in common with battle ships. In their glory days, both are usually air tight and impervious to the daily stresses placed upon their hulls. During periods of strength, only the strongest torpedo can breach the sturdy exterior. As they age, however, leaks begin to appear, allowing trickles of water inside. The good ship Rann has now reached the point where there are not enough collective fingers to plug the numerous holes that have transformed the lower cabins into aquatic wonderlands. It has reached a point so dire that the majority of the sailors should be eying the life rafts. Party office, however, believes that a mutiny on the Bounty will suddenly breach the voids. There is ample evidence, however, suggesting that this will not be the case.

Various events throughout the life of the Rann Government have been major causes of disenchantment within the rank and file and the union movement. The WorkCover debate, for example, tore a massive hole in the Governments defenses. The recent budget cuts to public sector entitlements served to accentuate this gaping hole, and if not mended will continue to swamp Rann and Co’s every action for the next three years. The union movement has begun to realize that symbolic protest is no longer effective in influencing key Government decision makers. Their attempt to push for “generational change” at this weeks State Convention is not worth the paper it is written on. Soon they will realize that the need to hit the Government where it hurts; the hip pocket and on the ground volunteers during election campaigns. While the Government is facing damaging leaks from the union movement, the seriousness of this pales in comparison to the leaks emerging within the public service.

While union members to have a seat at the ALP table, and are privy to important information gleaned from party functions and internal party events, their access to information is dwarfed by that available to the public service. Also, while the unions may agitate for change within the party, they are less inclined to leak information capable of sinking the Government. (At the end of the day, it is not in their interests to see a change in Government). The recent Michael O’Brien debacle and the Sustainable Budget Commission leak show the damage that a disenchanted public servant can cause. It is hard to say what the motivations of the individual leakers was, but I am sure the arrogant and bullying attitude of Government members and media team operatives is partly to blame. Slashing the entitlements of those responsible for the day to day operation of the Government is also obviously a factor. A change of leader will have a minimal impact on the relationship between the ALP Government and the public service. It is also doubtful that it will improve internal party stability.

The calls for “generational change” at this weekends ALP State Convention are not merely aimed at removing Rann and Foley. The generation that the unions want to take the reigns is the Weatherill generation, which is entirely different to the Koutsantonis/Rau/Snelling generation. MPs from both sides of the factional divide are using Mike Rann’s “victory lap” to discredit contenders from the other side of the factional divide. Rob Lucas had the following to say recently in Parliament;

One cannot walk the corridors of this place, or take a telephone call, without running into some Labor source wanting to leak damaging information against another government MP, wanting to damage first the Premier or the Treasurer and then the leadership contenders as well. The sources from the left are leaking against the Premier and the Treasurer, and any of the contenders from the right, whether it be Messrs Koutsantonis, Snelling or Rau; the sources on the right, of course, are busily trying to undermine and damage the reputation of minister Weatherill.

While Mike Rann, as an unaligned member of the old “Centre Left” has been a foil to factional rivalries, his imminent departure will cause the opening of Pandora’s Box. When Rann does go, his replacement will continue to be plagued by damaging leaks. Forces within the left (and the Union movement) will be unsatisfied with any outcome other than Premier Jay. Even if Jay is appeased by placing him in the Deputy position, it would be in his interests to cause the dethroning of the Premier. If, by some amazing twist of fate, Weatherill does reach the Premiership, the Right wing dirt squad will start working in overtime. The O’Brien/Foley brouhaha this week is evidence that there are even differences of opinion within the Right faction. If there is a way to avoid all out factional guerrilla warfare, I certainly can’t see it.