Breaking Point

When political commentators predicted that the SA ALP leadership would emerge from this weekend’s State Conference with a “bloodied nose”, I suspect they were speaking in metaphors. While Rann and Foley’s bodyguards ensured they were left untouched by irate unionists, Foley was apparently on his lonesome when danger truly struck. On the facts released, it appears the Big Kev was the victim of an unprovoked attack, but one could argue that he was exposing himself to that very risk as a high profile identity stumbling around the city during the wee hours of the morning. His headache from the king hit, however, pales in comparison to the head aches facing the party and leadership in the coming months.

Big Kev’s stoush outside the Marble Bar is not the only high profile confrontation that he has been involved in during the week. His Parliamentary encounter with Agriculture Minister Michael O’Brien differs markedly because it is suggested that it was provoked, and metaphorical punches were thrown by both parties. O’Brien, it is claimed, instigated the dispute by privately canvassing a leadership coup with Education Minister Jay Weatherill. While he has since denied the Weatherill component of that claim, he has confirmed his belief that it is time for a leadership change. While Foley’s Marble Bar attacker will face the maximum of a low level assault charge, party sources suggest that O’Brien will receive a political death sentence at this week at the earliest.

Speculation of O’Brien’s Ministerial sacking following his Timber-gate gaffe fest seemed puzzling in isolation, especially given the survival of fellow Right wing acolytes Atkinson and Koutsantonis following much greater scandals. When viewed in context of the claimed leadership coup, however, his imminent demise makes much more sense. While Rann is definitely on his “victory lap”, he isn’t gone yet and the Right is still undecided about who will replace him. Allowing a Minister who has publicly undermined the leadership to remain on the front bench is an untenable proposition. Rumours are circulating that he will be "sacked" by the Premier this week, making way for another Right hopeful, most likely Leesa Vlahos. I suspect O’Brien knows his end is near(or he should) and his public pronouncement on the weekend could at least make him appear prophetic when Rann’s time comes. It appears, however, that he has been caught backing both horses (Weatherill in private, Right faction candidate in public) and neither Koutsantonis, Snelling or Rau will take this betrayal of faction lightly if the attain the top job. His cross-factional scheme, however, is perhaps evidence of a rift emerging within the Right faction.

While I am no longer privy to all of the internal machinations of the Right faction, I suspect there may be two camps with differing viewpoints on leadership succession. One camp will fight Weatherill’s ascension to the death, even if internal polling or logic suggests that this will lead to political suicide and defeat in 2014. The egos of Koutsantonis, Snelling and Rau would never countenance that their leadership would be a failure, so the anti-Weatherill camp will mainly consist of friends and allies of those MPs and devout Right wing ideologues. The opposing camp of Right faction members would consist of realists that are willing to swallow their pride and acknowledge that Jay is the most likely candidate to deliver a victory to the ALP in 2014. This group would consist of people that are concerned more with self-preservation than factional ideological purity. Michael O’Brien potential falls within this camp, although I suspect that the idea of “leapfrogging” other Right faction rivals for the Deputy position also were motivations. The left faction will come out of this year’s State Convention feeling emboldened, and the metaphoric and actual bruises born by Rann and Foley will only serve to encourage party disunity and agitation. It will take much more than “rousing” speeches by Malinauskas and “contrite” apologies from Michael Brown to reverse the SA ALP’s breakneck momentum towards oblivion. With a competent and united Brumby Government careening towards defeat, the SA ALP can't afford to spend much longer preoccupied with internal division.