Trigger shy

Earlier this year when the “faceless” conspirators within the ALP plotted the brutal knifing of Julius Rudd, it is doubtful that they could have foreseen the public reaction and PR ramifications of their cold and calculated act. For a South Australian Government in the midst of leadership turmoil, the public backlash to the callous treatment of PM Rudd has further complicated the already torturous decision regarding life after Rann which is facing factional powerbrokers. In post Rudd political climate, powerbrokers such as Peter Malinauskas (whom Don Farrell has ceded complete State ALP control) face difficult decisions not only regarding who will replace Rann and Foley, but also how to instigate that transition.

It is clear from public pronouncements made by ALP HQ that they are eager to achieve an orderly “generational change” rather than a Rudd or Keating style forced dethroning. The difficulty facing the party, however, is two fold. Firstly, this process needs to be consensual. While I feel that Mike Rann has lost his passion for leadership (caused in large part by Chantelois scandal) and will stand down willingly, Kevin Foley does not strike me as the type to go quietly in the night. While his ego has taken a battering by the public joy over his recent troubles, it will take “close friends” like Koutsantonis and Malinauskas all their skills of persuasion to convince Foley that his time has come and he is a burden to the party. Even if the party is capable of ensuring the consensual resignation of Rann and Foley, an orderly transition can only occur if there is no contest over the replacements.

In a recent article regarding the Malinauskas/Weatherill breakfast summit, both parties were said to be united on the goal of achieving ALP re-election in 2014. I am guessing, however, that Jay and Pete have differing views on how to achieve this goal. It is likely that Weatherill believes that the party needs his leadership to succeed at the next poll, while Malinauskas believes that the party needs Jay to be loyal and take his medicine in a Snelling, Koutsantonis or Rau Government. The ALP cannot be victorious in 2014 unless it has a united caucus which is satisfied with the outcome of the leadership transition. It is difficult to foresee a scenario in which this can be achieved within the factional status quo. Recent events, however, suggest that factional unity is slowly eroding, and this process will accelerate as 2014 nears.

State Government Minister Michael O’Brien, member of the Right faction, recently departed from the factional line and called for a change in leadership. The suggestion that he was coveting a deal with Weatherill and the Left is a further complication for Right faction operatives. Plans to shoe horn Snelling or Koutsantonis into leadership is reliant upon the Right faction’s numbers dominance within caucus. The possibility of the fracturing of the Right vote within a leadership ballot is an occurrence which would remove ultimate control from faction leaders. The Right vote also fractured at State Conference on the issue of gay marriage, indicating the iron fist is rusting. There is a possibility that Right figures loyal to Don Farrell won’t recognize the heir apparent. This loyalty issue has implications in both directions.

Prior to the Foley Marble-gate incident, it was touted that Minister O’Brien would be sacked from the Ministry within the week following State Convention. Under the watch of Don Farrell (long time friend of O’Brien), his sacking from the Ministry would not have occurred. Under the new guard, however, his cloke of invincibility was stripped from him, leaving him exposed to the cold and harsh Malinauskas winds. Luckily his execution was stayed because the Government was forced to bunker down in the wake of the events at 4 am on a Sunday morning. The Government limped towards Christmas in damage control and baulked from self-inflicting any more wounds. Rest assured, however, that as MPs carve their Christmas turkey, plunging the knife into the succulent breast, their thoughts will be drawn to the crisis facing them in the New Year.