Training Wheels

Yesterday morning I found myself in the toy section of Big W. The warning “Not for children under 3” was affixed to the various bubble blowers and doctor’s kits. Recent events in South Australian politics suggest that such a warning should be attached to the SA Parliamentary Labor Party. The impending Cabinet reshuffle is the first public evidence of the transition in power from the old guard (Farrell, Atkinson, Holloway) to the new guard (Malinauskas, Koutsantonis, Snelling). It has been said that the true test of a master’s legacy is the quality of their pupils. I will now outline several glaring errors in the “generational change” process, and the damage that the “grown ups” can inflict upon the factional adolescents.

Error 1. Keeping Foley in the Cabinet

While the full details are yet to be finalized and publicized, it seems likely that Kevin Foley will remain within the Cabinet until 2014. It is likely that this compromise was reached partly to avoid a by-election and partly because of the bro-mance between Malinauskas, Koutsantonis and Big Kev. While this serves to remove Kevin from the key Treasury portfolio, his gentle landing fails to appease the blood lust of the public. It must be remembered that in centuries past, people would flock to public executions to see the beheading of enemies of the state. The current strategy deprives the public of closure. It also will make matters difficult for his successor.

Keeping Foley in Cabinet is akin to keeping Atkinson on the back bench. Political creatures accustomed to calling the shots find it difficult to deal with their loss of relevance. Atkinson has dealt with this by continuing to pester talkback stations, commenting on his former portfolio areas, which must irk John Rau no end. By keeping Foley in Parliament, he will make life difficult for Snelling, the likely successor. The media scrum and Opposition will goad and question Kev, asking whether he would have acted in the same way as Jack. The short term pain of a by-election would have been difficult, but allowing Kev’s political career to bleed out over 3 years will be agonizing.

Error 2.
Tarring Rau and Snelling with the Rann brush

The Marble Bar incident brought forward the axing of Foley, but the party wasn’t ready to go “the whole hog” and remove Rann as well. While the logic is that it will allow Rau and Snelling a chance to find their feet, there is a reason why leadership challenges usually involve the appointment of a new leader and deputy, rather than a piecemeal approach. Public perception of both Foley AND Rann has grown toxic. Rau and Snelling will be required to be the loyal deputy to Mike for at least six months, tarring them with the toxic stench emanating from Rann. This only serves to poison the successor/s. They will also be plagued with questions about their ambitions, such as when they are going to launch their coup. Mike doesn’t seem ready to go on his own accord, so the successor will be torn between loyalty and progression.


Error 3
Seeking to appoint Bernie Finnigan as Holloway replacement before Bernie has Ministerial experience

I would argue that Paul Holloway, leader of the Government in the Upper House, has the heaviest workload of any Government Minister. The ALP is starved of talent in the Legislative Council, and Holloway has to daily fend of attack dogs such as Rob Lucas, Family First and Mark Parnell, assisted only by the useless Gail Gago. Paul is capable of achieving such a workload because of an Aspergers-esque mastery of even the most minute policy detail. While Bernie is more intellectually capable than the majority of the ALP caucus, he faces an uphill battle going straight from backbench duties to leader of the house.

Holloway’s mastery of detail has allowed his office to be staffed by naïve and inexperienced advisers, such as Nicole Cornes (mining adviser, ironic when mining was the policy area which stumped her when Boothby candidate). Bernie will need expert advisers to assist him in dealing with the new workload that he is faced with. It is rumoured that Bernie was kept from the Ministry earlier because Mike Rann had concerns about Finnigan’s weight. Political reporters can be harsh, honing their poison pens on the shape of Gillard’s nose or hairstyle. The rough time faced by Kim Beazley during his time as Federal leader shows that (rightly or wrongly) physical appearance is considered fair game.

Error 4
Not axing Michael Wright from the Ministry earlier

Michael Wright today stated in the Australian that powerbrokers would need to “blast him out” of Cabinet. This isn’t the first time that the Right faction has tried to remove Wright from the Ministry, and he has responded in a similar manner, albeit privately. His shift from the Left faction to the Right faction was also caused by an attempt to remove him from Cabinet. It must be asked, given his profound sense of entitlement and previous betrayal of previous faction, why did the Right expect him to go gently into the night this time? It would have been much wiser to blast him out earlier, at a time that wouldn’t cause such damage to the party. Wright is covered by the old Parliamentary Super scheme, and as such can freely ditch the party, trigger a by-election and spend his retirement at the races. Don’t expect him to consider the fortunes of the ALP if indeed he is blasted out.

Error 5
Appointing Rau and Snelling instead of Weatherill

The Right faction is following the same formula as NSW ALP post Bob Carr, appointing their preferred candidate rather than the best candidate for the job. While Rau is less of a factional beast than Iemma, the “who the hell is John Rau campaign” has already begun. The left wing unions have already indicated that they don’t intend to remain silent on this factional nepotism. It remains to be seen how much resonance their argument will have, but given the national attitude towards the ALP “faceless men”, it is possible that the left will poison the chalice of the anointed.

Any hopes for a purely bloodless and united “generational change” process are futile. On February 8, Pandora’s Box will be opened. It will take some very poor work by the Liberal Opposition to enable the ALP to survive beyond 2014.