We would prefer neither

The latest Federal opinion poll showing a surge in support for the Greens to 16 percent and an abandonment of the major parties demonstrates a growing disenchantment in the two party system. Voters are faced with the reality that come voting time later in the year, there will only be two realistic options; a Government which has mislead, bungled, betrayed and belittled the electorate OR a Government led by right wing conservative Catholic with impulse control problems. Voters with a world view slightly left of centre are now completely bereft of the opportunity to vote for a Government that represents their world view. While in the short term the ALP will benefit from a golden stream of preferences from the Greens, ensuring re-election, they face being marginalised in the long term.

The 1990 election was the ALP’s first experience in riding back into office on the back of the Green vote. While at the time this was a master stroke by right wing fat cat Graham Richardson, the continued surge in Green popularity will potentially result in some raised eyebrows in the smoked filled back rooms of Chinese restaurants in Canberra. Back in 1990, the Greens were merely a tiger cub, relatively harmless to the lumbering political elephants that ruled the political jungle. The failure of the ALP to dine on its traditional food supply, the left wing voters of Australia, has meant that the Greens have been feasting on a bounty over the past two decades. Garnering a nation wide primary vote of 16% means that while the ALP has been slumbering, the Greens have grown into an adolescent tiger, potentially capable of inflicting some unexpected wounds.

While a 16% primary vote is not enough for the Greens to compete against the ALP on a national level, the nature of the Green vote across the nation is not uniform. Leafy inner suburban suburbs housing intellectual and arty types are fertile breeding grounds for the Greens. At the last Federal election, Lindsay Tanner’s inner Melbourne seat almost fell to the Greens. A continued failure for the ALP to engage its traditional base makes an eventual Federal lower house victory by the Greens almost inevitable. Given that the majority of the leadership positions of the ALP are occupied by power hungry fat cats with a vacuum where their beliefs should be makes turning the tide a difficult task.

The ALP’s gradual abandonment of its’ core beliefs over the past 25 years has transformed the party into a rudderless rabble, unsure of what it stands for. This has caused a transformation in the type of young people that are joining the party, and the belief structures of the people that reach positions of authority. When a political party develops such a severe identity crisis, it can take decades of turmoil to resolve. The worst case scenario for the ALP in the future is that all left wing voters support the Greens and all conservative voters support the Liberal party. If this eventuates, the ALP will become the equivalent of the Australian Democrats. This is a fate that the grand old party does not deserve.