Should I stay or should I go now?

Yesterday’s Advertiser contained an article speculating about the imminent retirement of up to 14 ALP MPs throughout the coming term of Government, including big names such as Hill, Foley, Rann and Atkinson. Curiously, since the articles publication several of those named have come out to dispute those claims. Given this fact, one must ask where this article came from, at what were the motivations behind it?

South Australia’s mainstream political press is the antithesis of the Woodward and Bernstein investigative journalism. Kelton et al are highly unlikely to publish anything unless it is served to them on a silver platter via media release or confidential informant. For this reason, it is highly likely that the origins of this story emanate from somewhere within ALP head office on Gilles Street. Michael Brown was obviously aware of the story, and his quote was in favour of the concept of rejuvenation. Left faction counterpart Kyam Maher was also named in the story. The purpose of the story, therefore, was for the new guard to bluntly signal to the old guard that their time is almost up, and the wolves are at the door. Today’s puff piece about the former Attorney General and his garden, however, shows that the old guard isn’t willing to give in without a fight.

Following the Rann Government’s recent election victory, I heard whispers that some within the new guard of the ALP were a little disappointed by the result, as it would further delay their ascent into Parliament. It is possible that given the recent Weatherill leadership debacle and Pat Conlon’s defection from the left, the Right faction feels that it is now in a position to dictate terms in any pre-selection battle. The battlegrounds will be drawn over seats where there is dispute over the factional “ownership”. For example, Ramsay and Kaurna are both held by MPs that are factionally unaligned. Torrens and Lee are held by members of the Right, but when they were pre-selected they were members of the Left. The pre-selection of Bernard Finnigan (to replace Left aligned Terry Roberts) and Lee Odenwalder for Little Para (now member of the Right) instead of Kyam Maher has shown that the Right has no qualms in asserting its ascendancy in overruling conventions. It is my feeling that merry hell will break loose amongst the factions during the next round of pre-selections, although given the dominance of the Right, the battle may be swift and brutal.

With 14 MPs possibly facing the factional broom, it must be asked, who will be selected to replace them. It is certain that Tung Ngo will be elevated to the Upper House, which is a move that should be universally celebrated. Tung is a tireless worker and a worthy representative of the Vietnamese community and the community as a whole. Stephen Mullighan, Foley COS is a likely candidate as well, and it is rumoured that he is eying the seat of Lee, held by Michael Wright. Mullighan is an astute thinker, easy on the eye with photogenic smile, and above all else, he has endured a lengthy stint as Foley’s whipping boy. Michael Brown certainly has his eyes firmly fixed on an Upper House seat, but it may be the case that party figures do not think he has done his time in the State Secretary role yet. There is little doubt that he will be perched in the Upper House at some point, barring any scandal. Logic would suggest that Peter Malinauskas will be holding the reigns at the SDA for the foreseeable future, but given his impetuous nature, he may throw his hat into the ring if the seat is right. (or pre-select one of his siblings). Those listed above are ‘”locks”; we will be seeing them in Parliament soon. Beyond that, I have no further information at this stage. SDA employees such as Aemon Bourke and “Guy Smiley” Josh Peak are classified as “golden boys” and are certainly possibilities. Legal head honcho Donald Blairs would make a worthy MP Ministerial offices are also fertile recruiting grounds. At this stage, however, there is no point speculating.

Amongst the Left, the two certainties are Kyam Maher and Matt Pinnegar. Kyam has been stooged in his attempts before, but the sparseness of talent within the Left suggests that he will become an MP at some point. Pinnegar is Pat Conlon’s protégé, and so Porky Pig’s recent defection from the left may have some implications, but probably not enough to prevent his ascent. Left wing union officials are also likely candidates, including Katrine Hildeyard from the ASU, Joe Szacacs (I can never spell) from the UFU and maybe Justin Hanson from the AWU (if his father had his way). My knowledge of the left faction being minimal, all these suggestions could be completely wrong.

While there is certainly an army of willing candidates knocking on the doors to Parliament, some incumbent members will need to blasted from their seats. Atkinson, for example, seems like he is in for the long haul. Any attempts to remove him will cause conflict within the Right faction. Who knows when the first shot will be fired? I suspect it will all depend upon the outcome of a privileges committee hearing into the actions of our Treasurer.