The Empire Strikes Back

Well it has been a historic day in Federal politics, or should I say infamous? Kevin Rudd’s political execution this morning stems directly from his unwillingness to play the factional game. While the factional war lords are claiming that his demise was due to his unpopularity in the opinion polls, the truth is they were baying for his blood from the very start. I remember a conversation with SA State Secretary Michael Brown soon after the 2007 election when he bemoaned the leadership of Kevin Rudd, and said something very similar to we need to get rid of him. So why were the factions so anti-Rudd from the beginning, and what does it mean for Julia Gillard?

Kevin Rudd was always an unlikely candidate for Prime Minister. It must be remembered that he came to power while the Federal ALP was in disarray, and it looked like John Howard would die in office some time around 2050. The absence of leadership material meant that Rudd, a factional outsider, was able to make it to the top job. Rudd’s amazing victory in 2007 stifled the leadership ambitions of Right wing “superstar” Bill Shorten. A long and prosperous Rudd era, followed by a seamless Gillard transition would stifle Shorten’s prime ministerial hopes indefinitely. Combined with his unwillingness to bow to factional demands regarding Cabinet positions and policy choices, Kevin was dead man walking from the very start.

The only thing keeping Rudd alive over the past four years was his popularity in the opinion polls. His leadership was similar to the movie Speed. As long as he kept approval above 50 %, he could continue leading. As soon as it dipped below 50 (and it did after ETS back flip, which was instigated by the NSW right), the knives came out. Granted, the did give him a few months to turn things around, but I suspect his was more Gillard’s hesitancy rather than Right wing lenience. Nothing sets of a leadership spill quicker than a disastrous by-election. Right wing power brokers sure have some gall using the Paramatta result to axe Rudd, however.

The weekend by-election result in NSW showed a 25% swing against the ALP. This was a State election, and much of this swing was a reaction AGAINST the constant execution of NSW Premiers by the Right faction. Not even Prime Minister Jesus Christ would have been able to turn the tide of this swing (maybe Moses is a better Biblical reference?). The NSW Government is the house that Arbib and the Right faction built. Using this as a justification to knife the PM is laughable. If anything, the NSW result shows what happens when the Right faction runs rampant. I am sure they are offering Julia some blonde hair die and a framed picture of the Virgin Mary as we speak. Therein lies Julia’s problem.

Julia Gillard was always destined to become leader of the Federal ALP at some point. Given this fact, the only question was which road she was going to take to that destination. Unfortunately for her, she has made a deal with the devil/s; Arbib and the un-wise men. Because of this ascension route, she faces only two possible futures. She can go against the Rudd model and bow to the Right every time they walk into her office demanding favours OR she can govern in the style that she sees fit, and face a similar fate to Rudd as soon as popularity begins to wane. My prediction is we will see a revolving door of PM’s over the next five years. The infection flowing through the veins of the NSW ALP has spread nationally. God help us all.