The Caterpillar Effect

Julia Gillard this week has publically acknowledged a phenomenon that the voting public was already aware of; the Prime Minister Julia Gillard is not the same as the Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard. I first noticed this phenomenon when observing the transition of Mark Latham from Sussex Street arm breaker to Opposition Leader in 2004, and have now termed it that caterpillar effect. This blog will try to examine why beautifully colourful political butterflies enter into a cocoon (or in this case caucus) and emerge as bland leadership caterpillars, shedding all that made them unique in the process.
Julia Gillard has admitted that she has been fake during the 2010 campaign and, in the style of Eminem, has said that the “real Julia” will now stand up. Before examination of the reasons for her “fake campaign”, I will take issue with her “real Julia” assertion. While the Julia that we will now see on the campaign trail may be more real than version 1.0, it is unlikely she has been the “real Julia Gillard” since leaving high school. Why? Because in order to reach the lofty position of Deputy PM in an ALP Government, Julia had to mould the pimply 17 year old “real Julia” into a form capable of achieving within the left faction of the Labor Party, the ALP in general and the Australian political system as a whole.
Young aspiring politicians are always quick to observe and understand the requisites for achieving success within their respective political parties. In the ALP, for example, the clear pathway is University Politics (part time union employment), Union Official or IR lawyer, political adviser, political candidate. While it is perhaps possible that Julia coincidentally chose this path for herself, it is more likely that she deliberately engaged on that path with her current end in mind. During her rise in the Left of the party, she would have inevitably played upon her working class roots, exaggerating them when required. Her training as a lawyer and student politician ensured she was well versed in providing ambiguous answers to questions. By the time she reached Parliament, she was no longer “real” in a traditional sense, because pure reality is not the path to success within a political party. Politics, and success in internal politics, is all about doing and saying what those above want you to hear.
Having said all this about the transformation of Julia from Unley High girl to Deputy PM, her public persona was indeed more down-to-earth than the standard politician. Having met her on a few occasions, I always found her warm and engaging. PM Julia Gillard is a totally different story. ( I will preface this by saying I was opposed to the manner in which she took the leadership) Having said that, I was still totally willing to give her leadership a try. Unfortunately, her entire public persona (encompassing policy decisions, tone of voice, willingness to take risks) has been such a departure from previous perceptions that the campaign thus far has been a complete and utter failure. This is very similar to how I felt about the Latham leadership episode.
As a young and idealistic ALP hack, I was a massive supporter of Mark Latham. His humour, risk taking and acid tongue was invigorating compared to the staid approaches of Crean and Beazley. I remember he was guest speaker at the launch of Senator Linda Kirk’s website. Upon seeing a picture of Linda walking along the beach, Latham yelled out “where’s the pics of you in a bikini? Natasha has them”. Admittedly, this kind of behaviour would never cut it as a leader of the party, or the public. Latham’s leadership, however, was a clear example of the clamps being placed upon the personality of the leader by national secretariat. While Latham’s leadership was flawed in more ways than this, it was a stark and obvious example of the discipline expected by Nat Sec.
Before discussing the leadership of Rudd and Gillard under Nat Sec constraints, I should explain the mentality adopted by the “backroom” of the ALP. The NSW right, and the right of the ALP in general, believes that it has developed a fool proof “formula” to winning elections. They believe that through focussed examination of demographics and statistics, policies and election strategies can be developed to ensure victory in the key marginal seats. For example, Latham’s forestry policy was flawed because of the number of timber workers in key marginal seats in Tasmania. Policy development is now almost entirely constrained by the impact these policies will have according to statistical data. The NSW right posit that by developing the correct policies according to data, and then using resources to flood the correct electorates, election victory is almost guaranteed. All the leaders need to do is follow the script. Therein lies the problem.
Kevin Rudd’s success in the 2007 was largely put down to his ability to stay “on message” and “follow the script”. Nat Sec would have intensely drummed this fact into Gillard upon taking the leadership. Rudd, however, was a completely different style of leader to Gillard. Even before taking the leadership, Rudd was always systematic, scripted and lacking in emotion. His transition to leadership, therefore was seamless. The only thing that changed was the scriptwriter. While this discipline was lauded during the election campaign, Rudd’s inability to engage the public and step away from the script was his major problem during his term as PM. Which brings us to the present day; Gillard is now steering a ship designed to carry a different captain. She has now come to the realisation that the approach mapped out by Nat Sec is inappropriate and ineffective. The question is, now is it too late?
Election campaigns aren’t planned overnight. They are often years in the making, and where most effective they should be tailored to the leadership style of the leader. The NSW right belief that their “formula” will work in all circumstances, irrespective of the leader, is blatantly false, as evidenced by the electoral fortunes of the NSW Government. The ALP was in safer waters embarking on an election campaign with a known quantity in Kevin Rudd, instead of plunging neck deep with Gillard without the time to develop a proper way to navigate the voyage. Now, I fear, the ALP is lost at sea.