Emergency Surgery

For any political leader, a reshuffling of the Cabinet is a most delicate process, in which they must sensitively deal with the egos and factional tensions within their party, whilst at the same time assembling a team capable of forming a competent and united face of the Government. As a former staffer in a Ministerial office, hours and hours, months and months were spent speculating about where on the chess board our boss would be moved, and what this meant for us. The only reshuffle I experienced was swift and surgical, where only the select few knew the details before the plug was pulled, leaving the rest us to crouch around the crackly Parliamentary radio, straining our ears to hear our future. The current Jay Weatherill reshuffle could be only described as being surgical in the MASH sense.

Matthew Abraham, today on twitter, described the use of the resignation of Pat Conlon and John Hill as impetus to initiate a reshuffle as “clever politics”. The departure of senior ministers who will not be contesting the 2014 election is indeed a worthy justification for reshuffling a Cabinet, approximately 1 year out from the election. A joint media conference, held with Conlon, Hill and Weatherill, announcing the resignations and the replacements would have been superb politics. This is not what has happened, however.

The duo of resignations in the last 24 hours of Hill and Conlon has been instigated by the leaking of a story to the News Limited press, foreshadowing their departure from Cabinet. Whilst it is possible that this was all part of a “cunning plan” to get the ball rolling, this makes no sense for multiple reasons. Firstly, Weatherill is not ready to announce the shape and make up of his new cabinet. Secondly, Conlon’s resignation press release was dropped in the dead of night, after a day of speculation, whilst Hill’s was dropped shortly after Jay had been on radio refusing to rule in or out whether John was going. This is in stark contrast to the happy families press conference in which Michael Wright and Paul Holloway bowed out from Cabinet. Finally, Pat Conlon, along with much of the political media and staffers, is on his annual leave. No, the story was leaked with hostility, and it has brought the issue to a head well before intended.

There are two main possibilities for why the internal machinations of the ALP have been leaked to the media. Firstly, it is possible that somebody (either currently in Cabinet or someone wanting to be) has been told they are not going to receive the outcome that they wanted, resulting in a dummy spit leaking. The other possibility is that the woeful and angry performance of Pat Conlon on the “hot busses” story, combined with the heightening crisis in the health system prompted party tacticians to initiate some political euthanasia. I think the first option is more likely, especially given the breaking revelation that Jay Weatherill plans to arrange his Cabinet based upon his own considerations, rather than those of the factions.

It is my fervent belief that one of the major reasons behind Kevin Rudd’s downfall was his failure to appease the factions when it came to Cabinet selection. I recall Don Farrell seething when Rudd dumped SA Right darling Annette Hurley from Cabinet. Jay Weatherill is playing with fire if he chooses to follow this path. Of the four ministers tipped to go, one is unaligned, one is from the Right, whilst Conlon was a member of the Left, but not anymore. A shrinking of the Cabinet by two spots means that there are two new positions, and given the nature of those leaving, the Right would expect to land at least one of those spots. Jay has a problem, however, caused by the quality of the Ministers that are leaving.

John Hill and Pat Conlon have undoubtedly been two of the shining stars of the Rann era, occupying the more difficult and senior portfolios. Jay’s dilemma is he must either find someone within the existing Cabinet to foist these portfolios onto, or he must find someone else outside of Cabinet to give them to. His dilemma is that perhaps the two most capable backbenchers are Dr Susan Close and Kyam Maher, both from the Left, and both cleanskins without existing portfolios. If Jay were to appoint them to senior positions, he would offend existing Ministers (Kenyon, Koutsantonis etc) who would feel that they are ready for bigger tasks, people elected at same time as Close (Bettison) whilst also offending the Right for ignoring their backbenchers. With existing front benchers, John Rau and Jack Snelling have both been strong media performers, but I guess that they would view any movement in portfolio as a downward step. The media has speculated that Rau may get a super portfolio, but again, this may offend some of the junior ministers hoping for more. Michael O’Brien has taken his foot out of his mouth for an unprecedented period of time, so it is possible that he can get a promotion too.

Mike Rann had the luxury of being a factional neutral, whilst any unilateral decisions made by Jay will be seen as an act of factional warfare. Selecting two Left wing backbenchers for promotion would be trouble, and I will be surprised if he goes this route. He will probably say “I am making my own decisions”, and then adhere to the factional ratio that is required. Another dilemma stemming from his Left wing affiliation is what to do with embattled Grace Portolesi. With the impending Debelle inquiry looming overheard, Jay is damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t. He can dump Grace in the reshuffle (he has stoutly defended her thus far), which would result in her losing face OR retain her in the portfolio, and face the risk of a damning report requiring her to stand down, triggering further reshuffling. A third option is to promote her, which is the biggest risk of all given her failings in a mid tier portfolio. This is all complicated, of course, by her factional allegiance and also her history as Jay’s Chief of Staff.

Finally, Russell Wortley, tipped to be dumped on performance grounds, would undoubtedly feel a little miffed if someone like Grace is not also punished on performance grounds. They both have been hammered by the media, for both travel expenditure and ministerial inadequacies. Some within the Right may feel that it is one attitude towards the goose, whilst another for the gander. If Jay missteps, it is very likely that his goose is cooked.